Canadian Premier League Power Rankings & Match Predictions

ELO v1 Match Predictions

Matchday Date Home Team Score Away Team Home Score Away Score Predicted Home Win Prob. Predicted Away Win Prob. Prediction Correct? Prediction Briar Score Running Mean Briar Score Running Briar Skill Score
1 2024-04-13 Atlético Ottawa 2–1 York United 2 1 61.86% 38.14% True 0.145 0.145 0.418
1 2024-04-13 Forge FC 2–1 Cavalry FC 2 1 52.74% 47.26% True 0.223 0.184 0.262
1 2024-04-13 Pacific FC 1–0 HFX Wanderers 1 0 59.24% 40.76% True 0.166 0.178 0.287
1 2024-04-14 Vancouver FC 4–1 Valour FC 4 1 54.91% 45.09% True 0.203 0.185 0.262
2 2024-04-18 Vancouver FC 2–0 HFX Wanderers 2 0 52.54% 47.46% True 0.225 0.193 0.229
2 2024-04-19 Pacific FC 2–0 Valour FC 2 0 68.36% 31.64% True 0.100 0.177 0.291
2 2024-04-20 Atlético Ottawa 1–1 Cavalry FC 1 1 53.51% 46.49% False 0.070 0.162 0.352
2 2024-04-21 York United 0–3 Forge FC 0 3 41.18% 58.82% True 0.170 0.163 0.348
3 2024-04-26 York United 3–0 Vancouver FC 3 0 50.28% 49.72% True 0.247 0.172 0.311
3 2024-04-27 Forge FC 2–1 Valour FC 2 1 73.21% 26.79% True 0.072 0.162 0.351
3 2024-04-27 HFX Wanderers 1–3 Atlético Ottawa 1 3 47.86% 52.14% True 0.229 0.168 0.327
3 2024-04-28 Cavalry FC 0–0 Pacific FC 0 0 56.30% 43.70% False 0.126 0.165 0.341
4 2024-05-03 Cavalry FC 3–1 Vancouver FC 3 1 65.23% 34.77% True 0.121 0.161 0.354
4 2024-05-04 Pacific FC 2–0 York United 2 0 68.14% 31.86% True 0.102 0.157 0.371
4 2024-05-05 Atlético Ottawa 2–0 Valour FC 2 0 69.77% 30.23% True 0.091 0.153 0.389
5 2024-05-10 York United 3–1 Valour FC 3 1 60.79% 39.21% True 0.154 0.153 0.389
5 2024-05-11 HFX Wanderers 1–1 Cavalry FC 1 1 39.82% 60.18% False 0.204 0.156 0.377
5 2024-05-11 Pacific FC 0–0 Forge FC 0 0 52.69% 47.31% False 0.054 0.150 0.399
5 2024-05-12 Vancouver FC 1–1 Atlético Ottawa 1 1 42.57% 57.43% False 0.149 0.150 0.400
6 2024-05-17 Pacific FC 0–1 Atlético Ottawa 0 1 59.30% 40.70% False 0.352 0.160 0.359
6 2024-05-18 Cavalry FC 2–2 York United 2 2 64.20% 35.80% False 0.284 0.166 0.336
6 2024-05-18 Forge FC 1–2 Vancouver FC 1 2 72.36% 27.64% False 0.524 0.182 0.271
6 2024-05-20 HFX Wanderers 1–2 Valour FC 1 2 62.88% 37.12% False 0.395 0.192 0.234
7 2024-05-24 York United 2–1 HFX Wanderers 2 1 60.32% 39.68% True 0.157 0.190 0.239
7 2024-05-25 Atlético Ottawa 3–0 Forge FC 3 0 49.60% 50.40% False 0.254 0.193 0.229
7 2024-05-25 Vancouver FC 2–1 Pacific FC 2 1 48.17% 51.83% False 0.269 0.196 0.218
7 2024-05-26 Cavalry FC 1–1 Valour FC 1 1 67.70% 32.30% False 0.354 0.201 0.194
8 2024-06-01 Forge FC 3–0 York United 3 0 65.21% 34.79% True 0.121 0.199 0.206
8 2024-06-01 Pacific FC 1–1 Cavalry FC 1 1 58.91% 41.09% False 0.178 0.198 0.208
8 2024-06-02 Valour FC 2–0 Vancouver FC 2 0 43.91% 56.09% False 0.315 0.202 0.193
8 2024-06-02 Atlético Ottawa 2–2 HFX Wanderers 2 2 72.15% 27.85% False 0.443 0.210 0.162
9 2024-06-08 Cavalry FC 1–0 Forge FC 1 0 45.04% 54.96% False 0.302 0.212 0.150
9 2024-06-08 HFX Wanderers 0–0 Pacific FC 0 0 45.06% 54.94% False 0.099 0.209 0.164
9 2024-06-09 Valour FC 0–2 Atlético Ottawa 0 2 42.15% 57.85% True 0.178 0.208 0.168
9 2024-06-09 York United 2–2 Vancouver FC 2 2 53.41% 46.59% False 0.068 0.204 0.184
10 2024-06-14 Valour FC 2–3 Pacific FC 2 3 47.25% 52.75% True 0.223 0.205 0.181
10 2024-06-15 Atlético Ottawa 1–2 York United 1 2 66.67% 33.33% False 0.445 0.211 0.156
10 2024-06-15 HFX Wanderers 2–2 Forge FC 2 2 39.38% 60.62% False 0.212 0.211 0.155
10 2024-06-16 Vancouver FC 0–0 Cavalry FC 0 0 52.17% 47.83% False 0.043 0.207 0.173
11 2024-06-19 York United 2–0 Pacific FC 2 0 52.23% 47.77% True 0.228 0.207 0.170
11 2024-06-21 Cavalry FC 1–1 Atlético Ottawa 1 1 56.16% 43.84% False 0.123 0.205 0.179
11 2024-06-23 Vancouver FC 0–4 HFX Wanderers 0 4 58.69% 41.31% False 0.344 0.209 0.165
11 2024-06-23 Forge FC 2–1 Valour FC 2 1 70.88% 29.12% True 0.085 0.206 0.177
12 2024-06-27 Valour FC 1–0 York United 1 0 42.50% 57.50% False 0.331 0.209 0.166
12 2024-06-27 Pacific FC 1–2 Vancouver FC 1 2 57.36% 42.64% False 0.329 0.211 0.155
12 2024-06-28 Atlético Ottawa 4–3 Forge FC 4 3 53.95% 46.05% True 0.212 0.211 0.155
12 2024-07-01 HFX Wanderers 1–0 Cavalry FC 1 0 48.97% 51.03% False 0.260 0.212 0.151
13 2024-07-05 Forge FC 3–3 Vancouver FC 3 3 61.53% 38.47% False 0.231 0.213 0.149
13 2024-07-06 York United 2–1 HFX Wanderers 2 1 52.86% 47.14% True 0.222 0.213 0.148
13 2024-07-07 Atlético Ottawa 0–1 Pacific FC 0 1 66.67% 33.33% False 0.444 0.218 0.130
13 2024-07-07 Valour FC 0–1 Cavalry FC 0 1 43.94% 56.06% True 0.193 0.217 0.132
14 2024-07-12 Vancouver FC 0–3 Atlético Ottawa 0 3 49.66% 50.34% True 0.247 0.218 0.129
14 2024-07-13 Cavalry FC 1–2 York United 1 2 58.28% 41.72% False 0.340 0.220 0.120
14 2024-07-14 Forge FC 2–1 Pacific FC 2 1 58.58% 41.42% True 0.172 0.219 0.124
15 2024-07-18 HFX Wanderers 3–1 Valour FC 3 1 61.75% 38.25% True 0.146 0.218 0.129
15 2024-07-20 Vancouver FC 1–1 York United 1 1 50.89% 49.11% False 0.018 0.214 0.143
15 2024-07-21 Atlético Ottawa 2–2 Valour FC 2 2 72.70% 27.30% False 0.454 0.218 0.127
15 2024-07-21 Cavalry FC 1–1 Forge FC 1 1 50.88% 49.12% False 0.018 0.215 0.140
16 2024-07-26 York United 4–1 Atlético Ottawa 4 1 54.67% 45.33% True 0.205 0.215 0.141
16 2024-07-26 Vancouver FC 0–1 Cavalry FC 0 1 52.56% 47.44% False 0.276 0.216 0.137
16 2024-07-27 Forge FC 3–0 HFX Wanderers 3 0 64.31% 35.69% True 0.127 0.214 0.143
16 2024-07-28 Pacific FC 0–3 Valour FC 0 3 66.01% 33.99% False 0.436 0.218 0.128
17 2024-08-02 Pacific FC 1–1 York United 1 1 46.78% 53.22% False 0.064 0.215 0.138
17 2024-08-03 Atlético Ottawa 1–2 Cavalry FC 1 2 56.89% 43.11% False 0.324 0.217 0.131
17 2024-08-04 Valour FC 2–1 Forge FC 2 1 39.12% 60.88% False 0.371 0.219 0.122
17 2024-08-05 HFX Wanderers 3–2 Vancouver FC 3 2 56.63% 43.37% True 0.188 0.219 0.124
18 2024-08-10 Cavalry FC 3–2 HFX Wanderers 3 2 60.59% 39.41% True 0.155 0.218 0.128
18 2024-08-10 Forge FC 3–0 Atlético Ottawa 3 0 60.29% 39.71% True 0.158 0.217 0.131
18 2024-08-11 Vancouver FC 1–0 Pacific FC 1 0 46.45% 53.55% False 0.287 0.218 0.127
18 2024-08-11 Valour FC 0–1 York United 0 1 45.90% 54.10% True 0.211 0.218 0.128
4 2024-08-14 Forge FC 2–0 HFX Wanderers 2 0 71.31% 28.69% True 0.082 0.216 0.135
19 2024-08-16 York United 1–2 Cavalry FC 1 2 56.10% 43.90% False 0.315 0.218 0.130
19 2024-08-17 Pacific FC 0–3 Atlético Ottawa 0 3 54.42% 45.58% False 0.296 0.219 0.126
19 2024-08-17 Valour FC 2–1 HFX Wanderers 2 1 52.34% 47.66% True 0.227 0.219 0.125
19 2024-08-18 Vancouver FC 1–2 Forge FC 1 2 41.72% 58.28% True 0.174 0.218 0.127
20 2024-08-23 York United 0–0 Forge FC 0 0 49.30% 50.70% False 0.014 0.215 0.138
20 2024-08-24 HFX Wanderers 1–1 Atlético Ottawa 1 1 47.63% 52.37% False 0.047 0.213 0.147
20 2024-08-24 Cavalry FC 1–0 Pacific FC 1 0 66.10% 33.90% True 0.115 0.212 0.152
20 2024-08-25 Valour FC 1–2 Vancouver FC 1 2 57.65% 42.35% False 0.332 0.214 0.146
21 2024-08-30 Forge FC 2–0 Pacific FC 2 0 67.16% 32.84% True 0.108 0.212 0.151
21 2024-08-30 Cavalry FC 2–2 Valour FC 2 2 69.99% 30.01% False 0.400 0.215 0.142
21 2024-08-31 Atlético Ottawa 1–0 Vancouver FC 1 0 58.54% 41.46% True 0.172 0.214 0.144
21 2024-09-02 HFX Wanderers 2–1 York United 2 1 44.78% 55.22% False 0.305 0.215 0.140
22 2024-09-06 Vancouver FC 0–1 York United 0 1 44.61% 55.39% True 0.199 0.215 0.140
22 2024-09-07 Forge FC 2–1 Cavalry FC 2 1 57.59% 42.41% True 0.180 0.214 0.142
22 2024-09-07 Pacific FC 3–0 HFX Wanderers 3 0 49.55% 50.45% False 0.254 0.215 0.140
22 2024-09-09 Valour FC 1–1 Atlético Ottawa 1 1 48.47% 51.53% False 0.031 0.213 0.149
23 2024-09-13 York United 1–1 Valour FC 1 1 63.86% 36.14% False 0.277 0.214 0.146
23 2024-09-14 HFX Wanderers 3–0 Forge FC 3 0 40.54% 59.46% False 0.354 0.215 0.139
23 2024-09-14 Pacific FC 3–0 Vancouver FC 3 0 58.62% 41.38% True 0.171 0.215 0.141
23 2024-09-15 Cavalry FC 2–2 Atlético Ottawa 2 2 60.57% 39.43% False 0.211 0.215 0.142
14 2024-09-18 HFX Wanderers 2–2 Pacific FC 2 2 53.49% 46.51% False 0.070 0.213 0.148
24 2024-09-20 York United 0–2 Cavalry FC 0 2 56.17% 43.83% False 0.316 0.214 0.143
24 2024-09-21 Valour FC 1–1 HFX Wanderers 1 1 54.10% 45.90% False 0.082 0.213 0.149
24 2024-09-21 Vancouver FC 1–3 Forge FC 1 3 36.79% 63.21% True 0.135 0.212 0.152
24 2024-09-22 Atlético Ottawa 1–1 Pacific FC 1 1 58.02% 41.98% False 0.160 0.211 0.154
25 2024-09-28 Forge FC 2–0 York United 2 0 63.83% 36.17% True 0.131 0.211 0.158
25 2024-09-28 Cavalry FC 0–0 Vancouver FC 0 0 69.83% 30.17% False 0.397 0.212 0.150
25 2024-09-29 Atlético Ottawa 1–1 HFX Wanderers 1 1 51.79% 48.21% False 0.036 0.211 0.157
25 2024-09-30 Valour FC 1–0 Pacific FC 1 0 51.66% 48.34% True 0.234 0.211 0.156
26 2024-10-05 Pacific FC 1–4 Cavalry FC 1 4 50.67% 49.33% False 0.257 0.211 0.155
26 2024-10-05 HFX Wanderers 1–1 Vancouver FC 1 1 67.69% 32.31% False 0.354 0.213 0.149
26 2024-10-06 Valour FC 0–1 Forge FC 0 1 41.44% 58.56% True 0.172 0.212 0.151
26 2024-10-06 York United 1–0 Atlético Ottawa 1 0 58.32% 41.68% True 0.174 0.212 0.152
27 2024-10-10 York United 1–2 Pacific FC 1 2 60.89% 39.11% False 0.371 0.213 0.146
27 2024-10-12 Forge FC 0–2 Atlético Ottawa 0 2 72.68% 27.32% False 0.528 0.216 0.134
27 2024-10-12 Cavalry FC 2–1 HFX Wanderers 2 1 58.15% 41.85% True 0.175 0.216 0.136
27 2024-10-13 Vancouver FC 1–1 Valour FC 1 1 49.79% 50.21% False 0.004 0.214 0.144
28 2024-10-19 Atlético Ottawa 0–0 Vancouver FC 0 0 58.65% 41.35% False 0.173 0.214 0.145
28 2024-10-19 Pacific FC 1–0 Forge FC 1 0 42.28% 57.72% False 0.333 0.215 0.141
28 2024-10-19 Valour FC 1–2 Cavalry FC 1 2 43.60% 56.40% True 0.190 0.215 0.142
28 2024-10-19 HFX Wanderers 2–1 York United 2 1 55.01% 44.99% True 0.202 0.214 0.142

ELO v1 Team Rankings Evolution Graph

ELO v1 Team Rankings Table (Last 7)

Team Rank Into Matchday 23 Rank Into Matchday 24 Rank Into Matchday 25 Rank Into Matchday 26 Rank Into Matchday 27 Rank Into Matchday 28 Rank Into Matchday 29
Forge FC 1576 1558 1569 1580 1593 1570 1553
Cavalry FC 1531 1513 1530 1509 1524 1537 1550
HFX Wanderers 1475 1493 1507 1522 1501 1488 1502
Pacific FC 1468 1481 1494 1479 1464 1482 1500
York United 1541 1522 1504 1494 1506 1488 1474
Vancouver FC 1442 1429 1418 1427 1437 1452 1465
Atlético Ottawa 1491 1503 1485 1469 1457 1479 1461
Valour FC 1476 1487 1471 1486 1473 1458 1444